Ukraine’s coal reserves are rapidly dwindling. And if this problem isn’t resolved soon, the fuel situation will become critical by the start of the heating season. According to available information, Ukraine is currently storing about 49,000 metric tons of coal, while actual daily consumption stands at 73,000 metric tons.

This raises a pressing question: where and at what price will we now buy coal? Against the backdrop of this problem, the so-called “republics” of Donbas have already sprung into action. In the territory of Donetsk Oblast controlled by pro-Russian militants, work has begun to increase coal production. Water is being pumped out of previously flooded mines. The leaders of the unrecognized republics have openly stated that they are ready to sell coal to Kyiv at prices much lower than those at which Ukraine purchases it abroad.

Is open trade with the so-called “republics” possible? What kind of blackmail might the Kremlin resort to in order to force Ukraine to buy coal from Donetsk and Luhansk? “FAKTY” discussed this with Boris Babin, a scientific advisor at Barristers JSC, Doctor of Law, and professor.

“If Ukraine starts buying coal from the ‘DPR’ militants, it will effectively be financing terrorists.”

— Moscow’s goal is to make the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” self-sustaining. Of course, in this regard, it would be advantageous for them if Kyiv began buying coal from the temporarily occupied territories,” says Babin. — But under no circumstances should this be done. Otherwise, the war will never end. Because if Ukraine starts buying coal from the “DPR” militants, it will effectively be financing terrorists.

That said—yes, both Donetsk and Luhansk are willing to trade with us. Everyone wants to get their money. And if you dig deeper, look at the picture that emerges. Officially, property is being nationalized in the temporarily occupied territories. But in reality, the beneficiaries are still the same people. And they live somewhere in the Pechersk Hills or Rublevka. It’s very profitable for them to have their businesses there and not pay taxes or pay people’s salaries. But, living in Kyiv, they are just as interested as anyone else in having the “DPR” and “LPR” militants trade with Ukraine. There will be many who want to profit from this situation; their names are known throughout the country.

— There’s a theory that coal from the occupied Donbas ends up in Ukraine one way or another anyway. For example, through Belarus. The idea is that there’s a scheme whereby Poland buys coal from the Donbas that’s mined in uncontrolled territories. It’s transported through Belarus. That’s where Ukraine buys it. In recent years, coal imports from Belarus have increased significantly. Where do our neighbors get so much of it?

— From the same place as the Belarusian shrimp. Remember when Russia supposedly started boycotting goods produced in countries that had imposed sanctions on them, and “Belarusian shrimp” suddenly appeared on their store shelves? It’s the same situation here. Now we’re buying “Belarusian coal.” We can’t say for sure that this coal comes specifically from the territory of the so-called “DPR.” But in reality, it’s quite possible that’s exactly the case.

— Is there any way to combat this? We can’t buy directly from the so-called “republics,” and buying through intermediaries is more expensive…

— So how can we deal with this? If there’s no coal from Belarus, coal from Moldova will appear.

— Could Russia somehow lure Ukraine into a trap and force it to buy coal from the unrecognized republics after all?

— How?

— Perhaps by taking advantage of the fact that the new Ukrainian authorities might not be very well-informed on such matters?

— I think that’s out of the question. A new prime minister has just been appointed—Oleksiy Honcharuk. I wouldn’t say he’s uninformed on these matters. Quite the opposite—he’s very well informed. I hope no one is planning to enter into such deals with Russia. If anyone wants to go down that path, they should look at Moldova and Transnistria.

“According to our data, Crimea will experience a very severe drought in the coming years.”

— Russia will still look for an opportunity to put pressure on us. As a former presidential representative in Crimea, what can you say about the supply of water from the Dnieper River to Crimea? As far as we know, the water situation there is very critical.

— Regarding Crimea, I’ll note right away: the situation there is actually somewhat different from that in Donbas. It’s more complicated. While Donbas is connected to Russia by rail—and goods and food are delivered there—Crimea is, in essence, an island. Yes, they built the Kerch Bridge. But you can’t transport water across it, for example.

The Crimean authorities tried to solve the water problem on their own. But that was only a temporary solution. It’s impossible to constantly divert water from the mountainous part of Crimea to the arid regions of the peninsula. These reserves aren’t infinite. If fresh water is extracted to the maximum every time, the wells will start to become salinated. According to our data, Crimea will face a severe drought in the coming years. That is why Russia is considering how to force Ukraine to let water flow to the peninsula.

— What exactly might Putin do? Blackmail?

— Yes, they’ll resort to blackmail. They have plenty of options for doing so. These include bribery, constant threats of invasion, and promises of concessions regarding Donbas. Well, let them try. And we’ll watch and see. I have a cautious but optimistic forecast. It’s based on the fact that water can’t be secretly supplied to Crimea, just like coal from Donbas to Ukraine via third countries. Regardless of who becomes prime minister or president in Ukraine, water will never flow to Crimea on the Kremlin’s terms.

— Can we dictate terms to the Russians? Do we have any bargaining chips?

— The Ukrainian side has this proposal: we can supply water to certain areas of Northern Crimea where the drought is absolutely unbearable. We’ll supply water to part of that territory and take responsibility for the region’s economic development. But on our terms. Russian soldiers must leave the area. We can’t start rebuilding infrastructure there while Russian troops are pointing their guns at us.

— So you’re talking about a gradual de-occupation of Crimea?

— Exactly. The situation in Crimea is currently very difficult in the cities of Armyansk and Krasnoperekopsk. The Russians need to start thinking about what to do. Either they completely evacuate the residents, leaving a wasteland behind—which is typical of the “Russian World” policy—or they accept our proposals. If the Kremlin agrees to our terms, then we’re ready for negotiations. But negotiations specifically about Crimea. Not about hostages, not about concessions regarding Donbas, but specifically about this particular part of Crimea. You leave—we’ll provide water and begin developing the liberated region of the Ukrainian peninsula.